Metal Price News - October
Aluminium is moving towards a normal price range, while copper is still rising on the uncertainty of a US tariff. Stainless steel is stable.
Macroeconomic developments
There has been no major news from the war in the Middle East for quite some time, but the price of oil is still high. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are still somewhat limited, and at the same time, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen has flared up. With Russian oil infrastructure being damaged by Ukraine, the world is beginning to feel the strain on global oil production and trade.
To lessen the blow on American consumers before the midterm elections, Donald Trump has entered into a diesel deal with Russia. There are also talks of a meeting between Russia, China and the US next month, but the topic of discussion remains unknown.
Aluminium
The price of aluminium has gradually started to move downwards. In the past month, the three-month price has fallen by approximately USD 270 / EUR 150, and the price is currently at the lowest level since the war in Iran started.
The reason for the price drop is that the balance between supply and demand looks better now than it did 3-6 months ago. The damages to aluminium production facilities in the Middle East seem to be limited for now, and global growth is slowing down, thus reducing demand.
Copper
Copper prices have risen once again. The copper market is very sensitive, and even minor news can make the price jump. This time, the uncertainty has centered on a strike in the world's largest copper mine, which was ultimately cancelled.
Trump's copper tariff is also still a major factor. The tariff has neither been introduced nor waived, which leaves the market in a constate state of high alert.
Stainless steel
Stainless steel continues to play by completely different rules than aluminium and copper. We expect continued subdued activity in Q4 and no major price fluctuations. With the fiscal year end coming up for a lot of companies, now is not the time for major purchase orders. However, we do not expect the price to drop either.
At the beginning of the year, we expected that the new import frameworks from the EU would eventually lead to a more balanced market. We have seen signs of this stabilisation, but the stainless steel market is still far from strong.
On the other hand, we have not seen much of a reaction from Asian steel exporters, meaning that CBAM has limited imports to the EU without completely unbalancing the market so far.
Plates/sheets
The combination of low activity and high inventory levels is causing a fight for orders.
Bars
Activity on bars is also somewhat low. Prices remain stable at 4307 (304L) and 4305 (303), while molybdenum grades (4404/316L) are rising.
